| Summary of Oregon Crime Trends, 1979-2003 |
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INTRODUCTION
Crime is measured by absolute numbers and by rates. Numbers show the quantity of crimes reported, which also affects the capacity of the criminal justice system. Crime rates reflect the risk of becoming the victim of a crime. This presentation uses both numbers and rates.
We also divide crimes into categories for more in-depth understanding. These categories include person crimes (mostly assaults, but including robberies, sex offenses and homicide), property crimes (mostly theft, but including burglary and arson) and behavioral crimes (DUI, drugs, disorderly conduct, weapons, etc.). The federal government defines another category, "index" crimes, to allow general comparisons of crimes across jurisdictions. (See definitions at end of document.) Curfew violations and runaway offenses, which are not crimes subject to incarceration, sometimes are included as an additional measure of community health and safety.
Generally, the most common crimes are the least serious. In other words, the more serious the crime the fewer there are of them. Person crimes generally are regarded as the most serious offenses.
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Total Reported Index Crimes. This slide shows the number of reported index crimes in Oregon over the last 27 years. Index crimes are selected crimes used for comparison purposes, and consist mostly (about 90 percent) of property crimes. The number of index crimes increased 24 percent from the base year of 1979 to the peak year of 1995. |
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Reported Index Crime Rate. This slide shows the rate of reported index crimes, which reflects the relative risk of becoming a victim of these crimes. The rate consists of the number of crimes divided by the population, so changes in either factor affects the rate. Oregon's index crime rate in 2000 was the lowest it has been in 21 years. |
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Total Reported Person Index Crimes. Person index crimes consist of aggravated assault, robbery, forcible rape and willful murder in order of their frequency. The number of person index crimes consistently grew between 1982 and 1995. Aggravated assaults followed that same general pattern, while robberies dropped fairly consistently since 1986 and rapes have dropped since 1992. |
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Reported Person Index Crime Rate. The person index crime rate grew from 1982 to 1985, then dropped or held steady until 1993. The one-year increase in 1993-94 has been followed by sharp decreases in recent years. The decrease in 1985-1993 primarily was due to drops in robberies. Assaults increased and robberies leveled in the mid-90's, followed by drops in both categories in 1994 and 1995. |
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Total Reported Property Index Crimes. The number of reported property index crimes has fluctuated substantially several times in the 27-year period. These crimes were at their lowest level in 1990, and highest in 1995. Larceny, the most common property index crime, and auto theft generally have increased during this period. Burglaries have decreased since 1986, and currently are at their lowest point in the 20-year period. |
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Reported Property Index Crime Rate. The property index crime rate has moved in 3-5 year cycles throughout the 27-year period. Larceny comprises 2/3 of the property index crime, and hit its highest rate in 1995. The rate for burglary, the second most common offense in this group, has declined consistently since 1986. The auto theft rate, while only about 10 percent of property index crime rate, more than doubled from the low in 1982 to the high in 1995, but has moved in a downward trend to the 2000 year. |
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Total Reported Offenses (w/ curfew/runaway). The number of reported offenses in Oregon has grown fairly steadily since 1983, with declines in two of the last three years. Each type of crime (person, property and behavioral) has grown during that time. Reported offenses peaked in 1997 at 483,000 offenses about 43 percent more than in 1979 -- and dropped to 453,000 in 1998. Behavioral offenses (such as DUI, drugs and disorderly conduct) accounted for most of this growth. |
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Reported Offense Rate (w/ curfew/runaway). Overall offense rates peaked in 1995 with a 19 percent increase over the 22-year low in 1983. By 1998, the total offense rate was nine percent above the 22-year low. Property offense rates in 1998 were only slightly above the 22-year low, which occurred in 1990. Person offense rates in 1998 were about halfway between the high and low rates for the period, while behavioral offense rates remain closer to the period high, which occurred in 1997. In the year 2001 the rate for behavioral crimes declined while the rate for property crimes increased. |
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Total Reported Offenses (w/out curfew/runaway). Excluding curfew and runaway offenses from the analysis does not substantially change the trends. It does reduce the proportion of behavioral crimes within the total reported offenses. |
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Total Reported Person Offenses. Most of the growth in this category was produced by simple assaults, which comprise almost 60 percent of the reported person offenses. Simple assaults nearly tripled between 1979 and the peak in 1995 (from 11,000 to 31,000) before falling to 27,000 in 1998. The next most common offense was aggravated assault, which rose from 6,600 in 1981 to 10,600 in 1996 before dropping to 8,800 in 1998. Non-rape sex offenses grew from 5,100 in 1979 to 8,600 in 1985. About 5,800 of these offenses were reported in 1998. |
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Total Reported Property Offenses. Larceny (theft) comprises about half of all property offenses, and grew about 28 percent during the 22-year period. Vandalism grew 10 percent to become the second most common property offense, while declines in burglary dropped it to third. The next most common offenses, auto theft and forgery, generally increased throughout the 22-year period. |
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Total Reported Behavioral Offenses. Driving Under the Influence of Intoxicant (DUI) remains the most common offense. Reported DUI has increased in recent years from the historic low in 1994, but remains below the high point in 1990. DUI offense reports closely reflect law enforcement activity. Drug offenses and disorderly conduct doubled since 1979 to become the second and third most common behavioral offenses, respectively. |
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Reported Offenses by Offense Type. This slide shows the relationship between changes in the number of reported person, property, behavioral and index crimes. Property and index crime trends are similar, because larceny comprises the majority of each group. Person crimes, the smallest number of offenses, had the largest percentage growth. Behavioral crimes produced the largest numerical increase. |
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Reported Offense Rates by Offense Type. This slide shows the relationship between changes in the rates of reported person, property, behavioral and index crimes. In 2000, the risk to Oregonians of becoming victims of property or index offenses was at or near historical lows. In contrast, Oregonians in 1999 were at their highest risk of becoming victims of or engaging in a behavioral crime. |
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Oregon and National Population Data. Oregon's population grew 33 percent (from 2.6 million to 3.4 million) between 1979 and 2000. The national population grew about 28 percent. Based on U.S Census Bureau data. |
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Oregon and National Index Crime Rates. Oregon's index crime rate exceeded the national rate in every year but two of the last 20 years. State and national trends were roughly parallel from 1979-88 and 1995-98. Oregon's crime rate dropped in the late '80s and grew in the mid '90s, in contrast to national trends. |
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Oregon and National Person Index Crime Rates. Oregonians are less likely than other Americans to become the victim of a person index crime. Oregon's person index crime rate was lower than the national rate in all but one of the last 22 years. Oregon's person crime rate has dropped less consistently and less dramatically in the 1990's than has the national rate. |
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Oregon and National Property Index Crime Rates. In contrast to person crimes, Oregonians are more likely than other Americans to be victims of a property index crime. Oregon's rate came close to the national rate in the early ‘90s, but has not followed the national decreases since then. In 2000 the Oregon's property index crime rate was at historic low levels. |
Oregon Data
Definitions:
Index Crimes: Eight types of crimes selected and defined by the federal government used for general comparison purposes. Index crimes are further divided into person index crimes (willful murder, aggravated assault, robbery and forcible rape) and property index crimes (larceny, burglary, motor vehicle theft and arson). Index offenses are general categories, and generally cover more than one crime – or degrees of the same crime – under Oregon law.
Person Crimes: Generally defined as crimes where the victim is present and the act is violent, is threatening or might result in physical harm. The most common person crime is a simple assault (physical force which results in little or no harm to the victim). Others include aggravated assault (attacks intended to inflict severe or aggravated bodily injury) and "other" sex crimes (sex offenses not involving force, including statutory rape).
Property Crimes: Generally defined as crimes that involve taking or damaging something of value. The most common property crime is larceny (theft), which is any unlawful taking of property from another person. Others include burglary (unlawful entry into a structure to commit a felony or any theft) and vandalism (willful or malicious destruction or damage to property).
Behavioral Crimes: Generally defined as offenses relating to personal conduct and public order. The most common behavioral offenses include DUI (driving under the influence of intoxicants), drug and liquor offenses (possession, manufacture or delivery of controlled substances), disorderly conduct and weapons offenses.
FBI Definitions
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