Director's Message

May 25, 2007

To: All DHS employees

From: Bruce Goldberg, M.D., Director

"Statistics are human beings with the tears wiped away."
~Irving Selikoff

Last week we reshot the DHS budget for 2007-2009. No, not literally -- we are after all a human services organization. "Reshoot" is a word that means a lot to state economists and budget experts, but not much to anyone else. However, it's an extremely important activity that directly affects the development of each biennium's budget and our ability to serve Oregonians.

Our budget is significantly impacted by factors such as economic changes, inflation, new federal and state regulations, and demographic shifts. Even though we cannot control these factors, we're still responsible for doing our best to anticipate changes and working with the Governor and Legislature to plan for the budgetary impacts. Reshoots are part of that planning process.

Twice a year -- each spring and fall -- our Office of Finance and Policy Analysis staff evaluate caseload trends and develop estimates of how many individuals will need foster care, assisted living supports, food stamps, mental health care and other direct client services in the coming year. FPA staff also estimate the per-person costs of delivering those services. The Governor's Recommended Budget is based on the caseloads and cost-per-case estimates from the fall forecast. In May the Governor's Recommended Budget is revised -- or reshot -- using new information in the spring forecast.

This past week we completed our presentation of this year's reshoot to the Ways and Means Subcommittee on Human Services. This updated information will be reviewed by the Legislature as part of the budget development and negotiations now under way. Our reshoot and the recently released May economic forecast are among the last few pieces of information the Legislature needs to complete its budget. The end result will be the 2007-2009 Legislatively Approved Budget, the one we will live with for the next two years.

Because this budget has a very real impact on people's lives and the ability of DHS and our community partners to deliver crucial services, it's important that our forecasts be as accurate as possible. That's why our FPA staff and others have worked hard to improve the accuracy of our forecasts and to account for as many contributing factors as possible.

However, it's important to always remember that caseloads, forecasts and budgets are not just numbers and dollars. They represent real people and real needs. The more we can do to accurately forecast and prepare to meet those needs, the better we can serve our clients. I am very pleased with our progress in this area and thank everyone involved in this effort for all your good work.

And there's another group of people we need to thank and acknowledge as we head into Memorial Day weekend -- our soldiers. Many of us have family and friends currently serving their country either at home or abroad, or we have lost loved ones in the past. While we often think of ourselves here at DHS as being on the front lines in our daily work with families and children, our country's military members are truly on the front lines. They are living and working in sometimes very dangerous situations, separated from their families, and facing a level of stress every day that most of us will never be able to fully understand. We owe them our respect and thanks for their sacrifices. So please, this Memorial Day weekend as you remember those who sacrificed their lives for their country, also take a moment to remember those currently serving our country.

To provide feedback email: DHS.Directorsoffice@state.or.us

This message is intended for all department employees. Please read it electronically, if possible. Managers and supervisors are asked to share the message each week with employees who do not have email access.