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Scenario Planning
Scenario Planning
Long-range planning in Oregon is about to get more interesting for Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs). In 2009, the Oregon Legislature passed House Bill 2001, the Jobs and Transportation Act. House Bill 2001 requires Metro and makes recommendations for other MPOs to conduct scenario planning to identify activities that will help regions understand what it would take to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from auto and light truck travel. Scenario planning isn’t new in Oregon, but using it to estimate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from improvements in transportation technology, mode choices and land use changes offers a new twist.  
 
Scenario planning for greenhouse gas emission reduction evaluates combinations of land use development alternatives and transportation system alternatives. A reference case, based on a forecast of where existing policies and plans are likely to lead, serves as a basis for comparison. Metro in the Portland area has already begun its efforts, and Central Lane MPO in the Eugene/Springfield area is setting the stage for its efforts.
 
Scenario planning works in conjunction with the greenhouse gas reduction targets set by Land Conservation and Development Commission giving each metropolitan area a goal to aim for. Local governments work through a cooperative process to develop scenarios.  The Department of Transportation and the Department of Land Conservation and Development (DLCD) are providing support through the development of Scenario Planning Guidelines, a GHG Reduction Toolkit, the GreenSTEP model and technical advice and support.
 
For more information about scenario planning guidelines, contact Bob Cortright, by phone at 503 373 0050 ext. 241 or via email at bob.cortright@state.or.us