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State Highway Fund revenue forecast falls compared to previous forecast
03/19/2012
Due to the weak economy the most recent State Highway Fund revenue forecast continues the five year pattern of seeing projections of future revenues dropping compared to previous forecasts. The December 2011 revenue forecast shows a 2.2 percent reduction from the September 2011 forecast (which itself showed a 2 percent reduction from the previous forecast).
 
While revenues are expected to grow from current levels, the new forecast shows revenue projections for the current fiscal year and the next three fiscal years (FY 2012-15) reduced by $101 million compared to the September 2011 forecast.
 

 
Other interesting facts about the revenue forecast:
  • The 2009 Jobs and Transportation Act (JTA) was originally projected to take in $297.6 million in FY 2012. Now it’s projected to take in $270.2 million—a 9.2 percent reduction from original expectations.
  • At the high water mark of revenue projections at the end of 2006, ODOT projected that the State Highway Fund would take in $986.4 million in 2011. It actually took in $1031.6 million in 2011—but that included $203 million collected under the JTA. If not for the JTA, the State Highway Fund’s revenue would have fallen $156 million—15.8 percent—short of the 2006 projection.
  • Projected revenue from all three major sources—motor fuels taxes, weight-mile taxes, and driver and motor vehicle fees—are down compared to the previous forecast.  However, weight-mile taxes on heavy trucks are down the most, by 3.2 percent for the current biennium.