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Oregon Sustainable Transportation Initiative (OSTI)

Scenario Planning and Scenario Planning Guidelines

  

Scenario Planning Guidelines

The final version of the Scenario Planning Guideline documents are now available for your use.
 
 
 
(503) 986-4119

 

 

 

 

 

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Oregon Scenario Planning Guidelines
 
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Background
 
SB 1059 requires that ODOT and DLCD prepare guidelines to assist metropolitan areas in conducting scenario planning to meet GHG emission reduction targets.
 
Description
 
The scenario planning guidelines provide recommendations and instructions explaining how local governments in the state’s six metropolitan areas should conduct scenario planning to meet GHG reduction targets. The guidelines help define:
  • Processes for scenario planning (e.g. who is involved, and key steps), which will include a process for cooperative selection of a preferred scenario.
  • Guidance for preparing scenarios (i.e. number and type of scenario to be developed, and scope of actions and programs to be considered).
  • Assumptions to be used in evaluating alternatives, which will include assumptions about baseline conditions that reflect the statewide transportation strategy.
  • Methods for evaluating GHG reductions, and other costs and benefits.
  • Steps for integrating scenario planning with other land use and transportation planning work (including regional transportation system planning and comprehensive planning).
  • Processes for public participation in developing and evaluating alternatives.
  • Coordination with cities that are near but outside the metropolitan area.

In addition, SB 1059 directed that the guidelines must:
  • Take into account the full range of actions local governments may take concerning land use and transportation planning.
  • Allow sufficient flexibility for different local governments to meet the needs of their individual communities.
  • Provide for coordination between state agencies and local governments.
  • Encourage local innovation to reduce GHG emissions.
  • Provide examples of alternative land use and transportation scenarios.
     
 
Guidelines Process
 
A scenario planning technical advisory committee – made up of local governments and other stakeholders – and a consultant assisted ODOT and DLCD in developing the guidelines over the past two years. The agencies provided the public an opportunity to review and comment on the guidelines.
Guidelines were developed in coordination with and reflect other SB 1059 work, including:
  • Baseline assumptions by ODOT, DEQ, ODOE about future vehicles, fuels, and vehicular travel.
  • OTC Statewide Transportation Strategy to reduce GHG emissions from the transportation sector.
  • Toolkit of best practices for actions and measures to reduce transportation GHG emissions.
  • Draft guidelines should be completed by April 2011, to help inform target rulemaking, with final guidelines completed by the end of 2011.
 
Key Issues and Considerations
 
The guidelines address several major issues:
  • Define scenario planning (i.e. level of detail of scenario plans).
  • Identify who is responsible for conducting scenario planning and the process for cooperative selection of a preferred alternative.
  • Define how scenario plans relate to and should be integrated with other required land use and transportation plans.

 

 

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Metropolitan Area Scenario Planning for GHG Emissions Reduction
 
Metropolitan area scenario planning for GHG emissions reduction is a strategic planning process to establish a transportation and land use vision, goals and approaches for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from light vehicles. Scenario planning has a broad (comprehensive) scope and incorporates the recognition of uncertainty and the consideration of risks if outcomes are more or less favorable than anticipated. A scenario plan describes a general course for achieving the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, rather than a specific set of actions that will be undertaken.
 
At a minimum, the scope of scenario planning must address the following:
  • The planning horizon date for the initial scenario plans is 2035. LCDC will be adopting rules establishing the planning horizon dates for subsequent periodic reviews and updates of scenario plans. 
  • Scenarios will address land use patterns and transportation systems in metropolitan areas. At least two scenarios will be developed and evaluated.
  • Scenarios must be based on the accommodation of planned population and employment growth. 
  • Scenarios must reduce greenhouse gas emissions of light vehicles (weighing less than 10,000 pounds) to meet targets adopted by LCDC. 
  • Scenario plans will be adopted through a cooperative process of the local governments within a metropolitan area.
 
The outcomes of scenario planning for GHG emission reduction will be:
  • A vision for how the transportation system and land use patterns would be organized so as to achieve the goal for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from light vehicles.
  • A schematic (conceptual) map that represents the geographic relationships of elements of the vision.
  • Scenario plan goals and objectives that are described in terms that are useful for judging subsequent land use and transportation plan amendment actions. (For example, more than 40% of households will be located within 1/2 mile of a high frequency transit route.) 
  • Potential future changes in circumstances to be aware of that could affect the likelihood that the vision can be achieved. Likewise, potential opportunities which if seized upon would increase the likelihood that the vision can be achieved. 
  • Identification of key local planning policies that are most needed to be adopted in order to establish the course for achieving the adopted scenario.

 

 



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