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Results First Model

  • This tool enables the comparison and assessment of criminal justice programs that are intended to reduce recidivism.

  • We work with the agencies that comprise Oregon’s criminal justice system to gather recent data on the costs and the effectiveness of these programs. We also calculate the costs of an individual committing a crime, from victimization to conviction to serving their sentence. We combine those crime costs with a program’s effectiveness to determine its benefit in terms of the savings generated by reducing recidivism.

  • We join this with the cost of the program to calculate the benefit-cost ratio, which represents the amount of cost savings achieved for every dollar spent.

  • We completed a partial version of the model in January 2015 and expect to release the full version in December 2015.


​​​​​​​​​​​Fiscal Impacts & Policy ​Analysis

Control group is comprised of similar offenders to program participants and created from existing data sources. Statistical modeling is used to control for any demographic or criminal history differences between the control and treatment group, but there is still an unknown selection bias​

Examples from CJC:​

  • Reentry Centers Evaluation​
  • We conducted an outcome evaluation of three Reentry Centers in Lane, Klamath, and Multnomah counties. Reentry Center Evaluation
  • Offender Reentry Program Evaluation
  • We examined four Reentry Programs in Multnomah, Jackson, Washington, and Josephine counties. The program is designed to serve offenders transitioning from state prison who completed a substance abuse treatment program while incarcerated. Reentry Evaluation Final​
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Most rigorous program evaluation design where participants are randomly assigned to control or treatment group

Examples from the CJC:

  • We evaluated the Measure 57 drugs courts in the following four counties: Multnomah, Umatilla, Jackson, and Douglas. Participants were randomly assigned to the M57 drug court or probation as usual. M57 Intensive Drug Court Evaluation​

  • We will be conducting more RCT studies in the future, since 3% of JRI funds are to be used for RCT studies of JRI programs.​​

  • These can be sentencing changes, or other policy or system changes

Examples from CJC​:

  • 30 Percent Earned Time Evaluation: We compared recidivism results for offenders who received either 20 or 30 percent earn time.  No statistical difference in recidivism was found.​ Earned Time Award Estimates​

  • M11 Analysis: We performed a long term analysis on the application and impact of M11 in Oregon.​ Measure 11 Final Analysis​

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For more information, contact:
Ann Leymon
Criminologist
(503) 378-2654
Ann.Leymon@Oregon.gov

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