In support of the Governor’s Ten Year Energy Action Plan the Oregon Department of Energy awarded a competitive bid contract to the Center for Climate Strategies to conduct foundational analysis and modeling for a wide variety of potential energy and climate measures. The project had two major objectives.
Greenhouse Gas Marginal Abatement Cost Curves For Oregon
Marginal abatement cost curves were produced that show the greenhouse gas emissions abatement potential relative to the cost of that abatement over a range of emission reduction measures. Multiple cost curves were produced representing differing assumptions about levels of commitment and action toward greenhouse gas abatement by external drivers, such as federal policy and technological progress, for two points in the future – the ten-year energy plan horizon of 2022 and an end point of 2035. Over 200 emission reduction measures were analyzed and included in the curves.
Foundational Macroeconomic Modeling
Foundational macroeconomic modeling was completed using the REMI PI+ model to provide estimates for economic growth, employment, personal income, and government revenues. Forecasts were done for the Renewable Portfolio Standard in its current form and two “least cost” forecasts of maintaining a trajectory to achieve Oregon’s greenhouse gas reduction goals by using differing MACCs and assuming that the emission reduction measures chosen are cumulatively implemented, from most cost-effective to least, so that the state remains on track to meeting Oregon’s reduction goals.
Important Points to Remember
The report is not an economic analysis of the Governor’s 10-Year Energy Action Plan. This project preceded the release of the draft Plan by several months.
The report is not a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis of the measures. The focus is on greenhouse gas reductions. A least-cost approach does not necessarily maximize other benefits the state may be interested in pursuing, such as economic return, employment, health, and energy security. A variety of measures – some highly cost-effective, others not as much – may be combined so that the 10-Year Energy Action Plan provides benefits across numerous criteria to maximize the costs and benefits for all Oregonians.
This work did not reinvent the wheel. Existing greenhouse gas emissions analysis was used where possible.
This report is not the final word. This work is intended to serve as a starting point for future analysis.
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