Predicted Success Rates
Q: How are predicted success rates determined?
A: Predicted success rates are calculated based on information from the JCP, ORRA (or Pre-Dispo ORRA), and youth typology. Predicted success rates for placement on county probation are based upon specific questions within the JCP and predicted success rates for OYA community placement and OYA YCF is based on data from ORRA (or Pre-Dispo ORRA) and youth typology.
Q: What does it mean if the predicted success rate scores are not displaying in JJIS?
A: To ensure youth will have predicted success rates, the JCP, ORRA (or Pre-Dispo ORRA), and youth typology must be available. The assessments (i.e., RNA [or OTA] and JCP) needed to generate these estimates must be completed and locked in JJIS within the last 12 months. Youth with a disposition involving a crime classified as a Class B misdemeanor or lower, will not have an OYA YCF predicted success rate.
*Statute requires a Class A misdemeanor or greater for a youth to be placed in a YCF.
Q: What if the predicted success rates for two environments are really close?
A: In some cases, the predicted success rate will be close or nearly identical for two or more settings. What this means is that the likelihood of success in those settings is pretty much the same. In these situations, it is even more important to rely upon professional discretion to make the best placement decision. Some things to consider include stability of the family, educational needs, and treatment needs, to name a few.
Q: With the new risk tools, do I still complete a JCP?
A: Current policy requirements have not changed. These new tools do not replace the county JCP Risk Assessment. The JCP is necessary to assess risk and needs for youth entering the system.
Q: How does the Pre-Dispo ORRA differ from the ORRA?
A: The Pre-Dispo ORRA is displayed at the time of the first petition filing. The Pre-Dispo ORRA score may be slightly lower than the ORRA score because a disposition has not yet been recorded. Finally, once a disposition has been recorded and an ORRA score is generated, the Pre-Dispo ORRA will no longer display in JJIS.
ORRA / ORRA-V
Q: Do all youth have an ORRA and ORRA-V score?
A: No. The ORRA and ORRA-V are valid only for youth who have reached the level of county probation, OYA probation, or OYA/DOC Commitment.
Q: Can I obtain an ORRA/ORRA-V score before adjudication to help inform the dispositional decision?
A: ORRA/ORRA-V scores are only available for youth once they receive a court ordered disposition of county probation, OYA probation, or OYA Close Custody and that disposition is recorded in JJIS. However, the Pre-Dispo ORRA score will generate in JJIS at first petition filing and may be helpful in informing dispositional decision making.
Q: Do the ORRA and ORRA-V scores ever change for a youth?
A: Yes. ORRA and ORRA-V will increase in very small increments as youth get older. Additionally, if a youth continues to engage in criminal activity, that is likely to increase their scores.
Q: When are the ORRA/ORRA-V scores best utilized in the decision making process?
A: Although this will be driven by local policy, it is recommended that the ORRA and ORRA-V scores be used during the intake process to enhance decision-making around placement and treatment in an effective environment that mitigates the risk of recidivating.
Q: What is the difference between ORRA/ORRA-V “Disposition Level Percentile Rank” and “All Dispositions Percentile Rank”?
A: “Disposition Level Percentile Rank” indicates the percentage of youth with the same disposition level who will have an equal or lesser ORRA or ORRA-V score on a reported date.
“All Dispositions Percentile Rank” indicates the percentage of youth in the juvenile justice system who will have an equal or lesser ORRA or ORRA-V score on a reported date.
Q: With the new risk tools, do I still complete an OYA RNA?
A: Current policy requirements have not changed. In fact, the OYA RNA is the assessment we use to determine a youth’s typology and to generate ONIRA and OVIRA scores. The OYA RNA is still an important and valuable part of OYA’s intake process.
Q: When the Typology comes from the OYA RNA, what factors or components are used in determining the Typology?
A: The following RNA elements are used in the methodology to create a typology:
- Attitudes & Behavior and Aggression composite
- School History
- Current Use of Time
- Current Relationships (Protective and Risk)
- Family History
- Alcohol and Drug Use History
- Current Alcohol and Drug Use
- Mental Health HistoryMental Health History
These components of the RNA make up the OTA.
Q: Does the JCP risk assessment also generate a typology?
A: No; however, OYA’s Research & Evaluation Unit is working on an analysis to determine if typologies can be generated from the JCP.
Q: What is the Oregon Typology Assessment (OTA)?
A: The OTA is a modified OYA RNA that identifies the typology of youth. The questions within the RNA that determine a youth's typology have been condensed into a shorter assessment to quickly determine a youth's typology. County Juvenile Departments that do not complete the entire RNA can use the OTA to help inform case planning and placement decisions.
Q: What is the difference between the RNA and OTA?
A: The RNA is a comprehensive assessment that assesses for both risk and need. The RNA is the preferred assessment for case planning purposes as it identifies youth criminogenic risk (dynamic factors that are crime producing) as well as a youth typology. The OTA is specific to generating a youth typology but does not assess for risk.
ONIRA / OVIRA
Q: If a youth leaves an intake unit prior to the first six months, are the ONIRA and OVIRA scores still accurate for the next facility or unit?
A: Maybe. The ONIRA and OVIRA are valid for youth in the first six months of OYA close custody. However, youth develop quickly, and they may have had experiences on the intake unit that have mitigated or magnified their risk for engaging in incidents. In these cases, it is best to use ONIRA and OVIRA in addition to information about how the youth has behaved on the intake unit rather than rely only on the score.
Q: Are the ONIRA and OVIRA scores still accurate for a community setting if a youth leaves an intake unit prior to the first six months?
A: No. The ONIRA and OVIRA predict likelihood of an incident in close custody.
Q: When are the ONIRA/OVIRA scores best utilized in the decision making process?
A: Although this will be driven by local policy, it is recommended that the ONIRA and OVIRA scores are used to inform staff of potential behavior to inform the type of environment that may benefit a youth.
Placement decisions should be based on an environment that mitigates the risk of incidents.
Q: How can I use these tools in my work with youth?
A: These tools are guides to enhance decision-making. The risk tools help you understand how “risky” one youth is compared to other youth and can help you align placement and treatment decisions effectively. For example, if you have a youth with an ORRA of 60 and another youth with an ORRA of 30, you might prioritize resources for the higher risk youth. The typology will help you understand the specific needs youth have at intake. You can use this information as a road map and use information about which programs work well with which types to make placement decisions.
Q: Since the new tools are only valid for some youth, what will be displayed in JJIS?
A: Youth who do not have valid scores with any of the tools will not have a score displayed in the relevant section on the JJIS Risk Overview Screen.
Q: Do I need to do additional work to create these scores?
A: No, all the scores, percentile rankings, and typologies are generated based on data recorded in JJIS.
- Predicted success rates are displayed for all youth with a JCP, ORRA
(or Pre-Dispo ORRA), and youth typology.
- The ORRA and ORRA-V are displayed for all youth with a formal disposition.
- The ONIRA, OVIRA, and Typologies are available for all youth with a completed
JJIS does not generate the scores — the calculations are performed in the JJIS Reports System and passed into JJIS. The scores are not real-time because they are generated during the refresh of the JJIS Reports database.
Q: The RNA has low, moderate and high risk categories. The JCP also has thresholds. Will the ORRA, ORRA-V, ONIRA and OVIRA have similar categories or just a percentile ranking?
A: No. The new tools generate percentile rankings only in order to provide a more precise prediction of risk, as well as the ability to compare specific youth’s risk relative to other youth.
Q: Are there policy guidelines or directives for how these tools will be used?
A: No. The intent is to provide the data, generate understanding about what the data means, clarify which populations the tools can be used with, and add research based information to help inform local decision making. Any policy guidelines may be developed at the local level with local leadership.