Action on Climate Change

Background

DEQ is in the process of developing the Climate Protection Program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address the worsening effects of climate change. This program will establish limits on emissions from some of the most significant sources in Oregon.

DEQ is in the formal rulemaking process to develop and propose rules establishing the program. The rulemakings opportunities for public engagement on the program development and this modeling study. 

Contracted modeling study

DEQ has contracted with ICF to conduct a study to assess different greenhouse gas emissions reduction program designs through specialized economic and emissions modeling to analyze potential effects on:

  • Forecasted greenhouse gas emissions
  • Equity, air quality, and public health co-benefits
  • Economic effects on regulated entities, businesses, consumers, and Oregon's economy

ICF will use different modeling tools to forecast emissions and project program effects on public health and the economy. The study will start with a “reference case" to serve as a baseline to forecast future conditions based on existing regulations. Then different program options will be modeled in policy scenarios and compared to the reference case to inform DEQ's proposed Climate Protection Program design in the rulemaking.

The results of the emissions, economic, and public health modeling will then inform an assessment of equity and potential co-benefits. This qualitative assessment will help to determine how and to what extent emissions reduction strategies may affect Oregon's residents and environment. This will allow DEQ and ICF to investigate broader potential program impacts on key indicators including health, environmental, economics, and social impacts.

Background resources​

Greenhouse gas emissions


Next steps

Program scenarios to be modeled will be developed beginning in early 2021 and will be informed by the Rulemaking Advisory Committee and rulemaking process. Rulemaking Advisory Committee meetings will be held regularly starting in January 2021, where there will be an opportunity to provide input on potentially modeled program scenarios. All Rulemaking Advisory Committee meetings are open to the public and each meeting will provide an opportunity for the public to comment. For the latest information, please visit the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Program 2021 Rulemaking page.

Initial results of the study are expected in early 2021, with final results expected later in 2021. This study is intended to inform the overall program design as well as the fiscal impacts analysis conducted as part of formal rulemaking.​