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Long Term Illustrative Compliance Scenarios

DEQ kicked off a long-term, post-2025 conversation about how Oregon’s transportation fuels market could meet new ambitious targets for the Clean Fuels Program. We invited stakeholders to participate in setting the stage for the technical analysis that will inform the development of long-term illustrative compliance scenarios. DEQ uses illustrative compliance scenarios to represent possible ways to achieve carbon intensity reductions. As part of developing these scenarios, we asked what combination of vehicles and fuels we might see in the future and then determine what reductions in greenhouse gases would result from those assumptions. DEQ plans to use these new long-term illustrative compliance scenarios to inform a future rulemaking that will propose expansion of the program post-2025.

DEQ hired ICF International to assist in the development of the long-term illustrative compliance scenarios.


​​The first meeting provided an overview of how scenarios are developed and a review of regulations in the transportation sector that might impact on the Clean Fuels Program. The goal is to give stakeholders the understanding of how the scenarios are structured and what fuels and technologies will have significant reduction potential. Stakeholders discussed and provided comments and guidance on the direction and framework for the illustrative compliance scenarios.

​This second meeting provided stakeholders with draft long-term illustrative scenarios of how the future of the Clean Fuels Program might look. DEQ has been working with its consultant ICF International, guided by initial input from stakeholders, to estimate the impact of more aggressive carbon intensity targets and complementary policies to achieve greenhouse gas reduction targets out to 2035. Stakeholders were presented with information related to the volumes and carbon intensity values of several different fuel types in different combinations that can be used to achieve those targets.


Cory Ann Wind
Clean Fuels Program Manager