Caseload Forecasting

Office of Forecasting, Research and Analysis

The Office of Forecasting, Research and Analysis (OFRA) supports the Oregon Department of Human Services (ODHS) and Oregon Health Authority (OHA) by providing accurate, timely, unbiased caseload forecasts and related research and analysis to support budgeting, policy development and operational planning.

Forecasts

We provide caseload and regional forecasts for ODHS and OHA using econometric modeling and prior history of enrolled cases to create projections. From these reports, estimates of expenditures for the two agencies' budgets can be made. Objective and impartial forecasts are critical to developing accurate budget estimates. Overstated budgets may result in larger appropriations than necessary while underestimated budgets may require additional appropriations from General Fund reserves. In addition to internal data sources, we also use Oregon's Office of Economic Analysis' Demographic Forecast, Oregon's Employment Department's Labor Market Information System and the US Census Bureau.

Current Caseload Forecast

Monthly Caseload Variance Reports

Special Reports

Provider Assessment Resources

• Hospital Provider Assessment Workbook, effective Oct. 1, 2020 (Excel)
• Hospital Provider Assessment OAR 410-050-0740
  
• LTC Provider Assessment Form, effective July 1, 2023 (Excel)
  
• LTC Provider Assessment Rate Change Letter, effective July 1, 2023
  
• LTC Provider Assessment OAR 411-069-0000
  
• MCO Provider Assessment Form, effective Jan. 1, 2020 (Excel)