The forecast unit’s purpose is to project the number of cases expected to be enrolled in the future within Department of Human Services and the Oregon Health Authority programs and services. The unit uses econometric modeling and prior history of enrolled cases to create projections. From these reports, estimates of expenditures for the two agencies’ budgets can then be made.
Although there is inherent uncertainty in forecasting caseloads, objective and impartial forecasts are important for developing accurate program budget estimates. If estimated expenditures are overstated, the legislature may initially approve a larger budget than necessary to meet actual demand. Yet, an under-estimated forecast may require a new appropriation from state General Fund reserves. Accurate caseload forecasts are therefore extremely important for future budgets.
Please contact firstname.lastname@example.org or email@example.com for historical information and reports.
Current Caseload Forecast
Caseload Forecast Variance Reports
DHS/OHA Provider Assessment