Purpose

The forecast unit’s purpose is to project the number of cases expected to be enrolled in the future within Department of Human Services and the Oregon Health Authority programs and services. The unit uses econometric modeling and prior history of enrolled cases to create projections. From these reports, estimates of expenditures for the two agencies’ budgets can then be made.

Although there is inherent uncertainty in forecasting caseloads, objective and impartial forecasts are important for developing accurate program budget estimates. If estimated expenditures are overstated, the legislature may initially approve a larger budget than necessary to meet actual demand. Yet, an under-estimated forecast may require a new appropriation from state General Fund reserves. Accurate caseload forecasts are therefore extremely important for future budgets.

Please contact katie.l.brown@state.or.us or tricia.macinnes@state.or.us for historical information and reports.

Current Caseload Forecast

  
Fall 2018 Regional Caseload Forecast
Spring 2019 Biennial Average Overview
Spring 2019 Caseload Forecast

Caseload Forecast Variance Reports

  
APD Caseload Variance Report Jun19
CW Caseload Variance Report Jun19
HSM Caseload Variance Report Jun19
IDD Caseload Variance Report Jun19
SSP Caseload Variance Report Jun19
VR Caseload Variance Report Jun19

Special Reports

  
Client Overlap - All Agency
Client Overlap - DHS and HSM
Client Overlap - DHS and OHA
House Legislative Fact Sheets (2018)
Poverty Hotspot - Benton to Lane County
Poverty Hotspot - Lincoln to Yamhill County
Senate Legislative Fact Sheets (2018)
Special Report-Forecasting DHS and OHA Caseloads and the Minimum Wage
Special Reports for Regional Forecasts

DHS/OHA Provider Assessment​​​

  
Hospital Provider Assessment OAR 410-050-0700
Hospital Provider Assessment Workbook eff 07-01-18
Long Term Care Assessment OAR 411-069-0000
Long Term Care Provider Assessment Reporting Form eff 07-01-18
Manage Care Provider Assessment Reporting Form eff 01-01-18
Managed Care Organization Assessment OAR 410-141-4000

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