The Office of Forecasting, Research and Analysis (OFRA) supports Oregon Department of Human Services (ODHS) and Oregon Health Authority (OHA) by providing accurate, timely, unbiased caseload forecasts, and related research and analysis to support budgeting, policy development, and operational planning.
OFRA's forecast unit projects the number of cases expected to be enrolled in the future within ODHS and OHA programs and services. The unit uses econometric modeling and prior history of enrolled cases to create projections. From these reports, estimates of expenditures for the two agencies’ budgets can then be made.
Although there is inherent uncertainty in forecasting caseloads, objective and impartial forecasts are important for developing accurate program budget estimates. If estimated expenditures are overstated, the legislature may initially approve a larger budget than necessary to meet actual demand. Yet, an under-estimated forecast may require a new appropriation from state General Fund reserves. Accurate caseload forecasts are therefore extremely important for future budgets.
Data sources include Oregon's Office of Economic Analysis' Demographic Forecast and Employment Department's Labor Market Information System and the US Census Bureau.
Current Caseload Forecast
Caseload Forecast Variance Reports
Please contact firstname.lastname@example.org or email@example.com for historical information and reports.