OFRA's​​ forecast unit projects the number of cases expected to be enrolled in the future within ODHS and OHA programs and services. The unit uses econometric modeling and prior history of enrolled cases to create projections. From these reports, estimates of expenditures for the two agencies’ budgets can then be made.

Although there is inherent uncertainty in forecasting caseloads, objective and impartial forecasts are important for developing accurate program budget estimates. If estimated expenditures are overstated, the legislature may initially approve a larger budget than necessary to meet actual demand. Yet, an under-estimated forecast may require a new appropriation from state General Fund reserves. Accurate caseload forecasts are therefore extremely important for future budgets.

Data resour​ces include Oregon's Office of Economic Analysis' Demographic Forecast and Employment Department's Labor Market Information System​ and the US Census Bureau​.

Current C​aseload Forecast

  
FALL 2021 Regional Forecast by District
Fall 2021 Statewide Forecast
Spring 2022 Biennial Average Comparison Tables
Spring 2022 Statewide Forecast

Caseload Forecast Variance Reports

  
APD Caseload Variance Report Apr22
CW Caseload Variance Report Apr22
HSM Caseload Variance Report Apr 22
IDD Caseload Variance Report Apr22
SSP Caseload Variance Report Apr22
VR Caseload Variance Report Apr22

Special Reports

  
Client Overlap - 2020 ODHS and HSM
Client Overlap - 2020 ODHS and OHA - final

ODHS|OHA Provider Assessment​​​

  
Hospital Provider Assessment OAR 410-050-0740
Hospital Provider Assessment Form
LTC Provider Assessment Form
LTC Provider Assessment OAR 411-069-0000
MCO Provider Assessment Form

Please contact katie.l.brown@dhsoha.state.or.us or tricia.macinnes@dhsoha.state.or.us for historical information and reports.