​​​Purpose

The forecast unit’s purpose is to project the number of cases expected to be enrolled in the future within the Oregon Department of Human Services and the Oregon Health Authority programs and services. The unit uses econometric modeling and prior history of enrolled cases to create projections. From these reports, estimates of expenditures for the two agencies’ budgets can then be made.

Although there is inherent uncertainty in forecasting caseloads, objective and impartial forecasts are important for developing accurate program budget estimates. If estimated expenditures are overstated, the legislature may initially approve a larger budget than necessary to meet actual demand. Yet, an under-estimated forecast may require a new appropriation from state General Fund reserves. Accurate caseload forecasts are therefore extremely important for future budgets.

Please contact katie.l.brown@dhsoha.state.or.us or tricia.macinnes@dhsoha.state.or.us for historical information and reports.

Current Caseload Forecast

  
Spring 2021 Biennial Average Overview Table
Spring 2021 Regional Forecast by District
Spring 2021 Statewide Forecast

Caseload Forecast Variance Reports

  
APD Caseload Variance Report Aug21
CW Caseload Variance Report Aug21
HSM Caseload Variance Report Aug 21
IDD Caseload Variance Report Aug21
SSP Caseload Variance Report Aug21
VR Caseload Variance Report Aug21

Special Reports

  
Client Overlap - 2019 DHS and HSM
Client Overlap - 2019 DHS and OHA
House Legislative Fact Sheets (2018)
Poverty Hotspot - Benton to Lane County
Poverty Hotspot - Lincoln to Yamhill County
Senate Legislative Fact Sheets (2018)
Special Report-Forecasting DHS and OHA Caseloads and the Minimum Wage
Special Reports for Regional Forecasts

ODHS|OHA Provider Assessment​​​

  
Hospital Provider Assessment OAR 410-050-0700
Hospital Provider Assessment Form
Long Term Care Assessment OAR 411-069-0000
LTC Provider Assessment Form
Managed Care Organization Assessment OAR 410-141-4000
MCO Provider Assessment Form

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