Purpose

The forecast unit’s purpose is to project the number of cases expected to be enrolled in the future within Department of Human Services and the Oregon Health Authority programs and services. The unit uses econometric modeling and prior history of enrolled cases to create projections. From these reports, estimates of expenditures for the two agencies’ budgets can then be made.

Although there is inherent uncertainty in forecasting caseloads, objective and impartial forecasts are important for developing accurate program budget estimates. If estimated expenditures are overstated, the legislature may initially approve a larger budget than necessary to meet actual demand. Yet, an under-estimated forecast may require a new appropriation from state General Fund reserves. Accurate caseload forecasts are therefore extremely important for future budgets.

Please contact katie.l.brown@state.or.us or tricia.macinnes@state.or.us for historical information and reports.

Current Caseload Forecast

  
Fall 2020 Biennial Average Overview Table
Fall 2020 Caseload Forecast
Fall 2020 Regional Forecast

Caseload Forecast Variance Reports

  
APD Caseload Variance Report Dec20
CW Caseload Variance Report Dec20
HSM Caseload Variance Report Dec 20
IDD Caseload Variance Report Dec20
SSP Caseload Variance Report Dec20
VR Caseload Variance Report Dec20

Special Reports

  
Client Overlap Charts - DHS and HSM
Client Overlap Charts - DHS and OHA
House Legislative Fact Sheets (2018)
Poverty Hotspot - Benton to Lane County
Poverty Hotspot - Lincoln to Yamhill County
Senate Legislative Fact Sheets (2018)
Special Report-Forecasting DHS and OHA Caseloads and the Minimum Wage
Special Reports for Regional Forecasts

DHS/OHA Provider Assessment​​​

  
Hospital Provider Assessment OAR 410-050-0700
Hospital Provider Assessment Form
Long Term Care Assessment OAR 411-069-0000
LTC Provider Assessement Form
Managed Care Organization Assessment OAR 410-141-4000
MCO Provider Assessment Form

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