Economic analysis

Oregon Revised Statutes (2017) Chapter 750, Section 163​ authorizes the Office of Economic Analysis (OEA), with substantial assistance from the Department of Environmental Quality, to produce annually a forecast regarding deficits and credits owing to fossil and alternative fuel consumption, as well as the availability of fossil and alternative fuels in Oregon.  In particular, the forecast is to determine whether fuel supply will be sufficient to generate alternative fuel (ethanol, electricity, and diesel substitutes - including biodiesel, renewable diesel, natural gas, and propane) credits to meet the scheduled applicable low carbon fuel standards for the compliance period.  The forecast report is required to include an assessment of banked deficits and credits at the beginning of the compliance period.

The Clean Fuels Forecast is issued annually on Oct. 1.  Please feel free to contact Michael Kennedy at 503-378-5732 or michael.kennedy@oregon.gov on matters regarding Clean Fuels Forecasts.

Most recent forecast


Archived forecasts


Data sources

The forecast uses available public and program data to develop the estimates of low-carbon fuels available to Oregon and estimated consumption of fossil and alternative fuels in Oregon. The sources of this data include: 

  • Oregon Clean Fuels Program (CFP) Online System
  • Fuel Pathway Codes (carbon intensity values) approved in Oregon and California 
  • Oregon Department of Transportation’s (ODOT) Revenue Forecast 
  • Oregon DMV vehicle registration data 
  • Annual Energy Outlook from the US Energy Information Administration 
  • Trade associations (Renewable Fuels Association and the National Biodiesel Board) on their members’ production capacity


Methodology

The current methodology was developed by ICF Incorporated for the 2017 Clean Fuels Forecast and is based on the following components: a fuel demand component, a fuel supply component, and a carbon intensity component. 

Demand Inputs 

  • Vehicle stocks – OEA uses Oregon DMV vehicle registration data to analyze for which vehicle types are currently registered as well as historical trends. 
  • Fuel consumption – OEA uses a combination of the ODOT Revenue Forecast and the EIA Annual Energy Outlook to analyze for projected and historical trends in fuel consumption. 

Fuel Supply 

  • Fuels and associated feedstocks - OEA reviews data regarding the supply of gasoline, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, renewable diesel, natural gas, propane and electricity. 
  • Regional fuel supply – OEA primarily uses data reported to CFP to analyze the volumes and types of fuels facilities are supplying fuels to Oregon. If needed, this information can be supplemented by information from California or British Columbia to demonstrate what fuels are broadly available to the West Coast. 

Carbon Intensity 

  • ​Oregon and California-approved values – OEA looks at individual carbon intensity values to facilities that have been approved by either itself or by the California Air Resources Board.

Numerous issues were raised during the development of the 2019 forecast. For the 2020 forecast cycle, the Office of Economic Analysis will form a technical advisory committee to consider modifications to the existing methodology, as well as the incorporation of additional data sources not factored into the current methodology.  In addition, much of the data underlying the clean fuels forecast has only recently begun to be collected.  To the degree that the passage of time will generate longitudinal time series more amenable to the econometric techniques that are the cornerstone of OEA’s forecasting processes, better projections will avail themselves over time.


Advisory committee

Chair
Mark McMullen, State Economist

Members
Lindsay Baker, Oregon Department of Transportation
John Bolte, Oregon State Univeristy
Patrick Brennan, Legislative Policy and Research Office
Mark Bunch, BP Oil Company
David Cox, RNG Coalition
Brian Doherty, Miller Nash
Brendan Finn, Governor's Office
Lindsay Fitzgerald, Renewable Energy Group
Jana Gastellum, Oregon Environmental Council
Don Gilstrap, Chevron Oil Company
Mark Gram, Jubitz
Elizabeth Hepp, Valero
Ian Hill, SeQuential
Jessica Hoffman, RPMG
Jana Jarvis, Oregon Trucking Association
Tom Koehler, Pacific Ethanol
Mazen Malik, Legislative Revenue Office
Jeremy Martin, Union of Concerned Scientists
Brian McDonald, Andeavor
Tim Morgan, AAA Oregon/Idaho
Shelby Neal, National Biodiesel Board
Don Negri, Willamette University
Connor Nix, Shell Oil Company
Graham Noyes, Noyes Law Corporation
Brandon Price, Clean Energy Fuels
Josh Proudfoot, Good Company
Danelle Romain, The Romain Group
Kristen Sheeran, Governor's Office
Jessica Spiegel, Western States Petroleum
Annie Stuart, Coleman Oil Company
John Thornton, Clean Future
Marc Ventura, Phillips 66 Oil Company
Mary Wiencke, Pacificorp
Cory-Ann Wind, Department of Environmental Quality

Friends and Support Staff
Waylon Buchan, Oregon Trucking Association
Matthew Davis, Department of Environmental Quality
Michael Kennedy, Office of Economic Analysis
Doug Kleeb, Oregon Department of Transportation
Joshua Lehner, Office of Economic Analysis
Daniel Porter, Oregon Department of Transportation
Bob Russell, Oregon Trucking Association
Amy Williams, Department of Administrative Services

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