Economic analysis

Oregon Revised Statutes Chapter 468A, Section 272 authorizes the Office of Economic Analysis (OEA), with substantial assistance from the Department of Environmental Quality, to assess the availability of fossil and alternative fuels in Oregon.  In particular, the forecast is to determine whether fuel supply will be sufficient to generate alternative fuel (ethanol, electricity, and diesel substitutes - including biodiesel, renewable diesel, natural gas, ​and propane) credits to meet the scheduled applicable low carbon fuel standards for the compliance period.  The forecast report is required to include an assessment of banked deficits and credits at the beginning of the compliance period.

The Clean Fuels Forecast is issued annually on Oct. 1.  Please feel free to contact Michael Kennedy at 503-378-5732 or michael.kennedy@oregon.gov on matters regarding Clean Fuels Forecasts.

Most recent forecast

Coming soon.

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Methodology


During the spring of 2019, a technical workgroup met twice to review the existing methodology that was used for the 2019 forecast. In particular the group examined potentially overlooked data sources as well as modeling adjustments. The results of the effort were reported out to the full advisory committee and are reflected in the 2020 forecast methodology available above.

Advisory committee

Chair
Mark McMullen, State Economist

Members
Greg Alderson, PGE
Lindsay Baker, Oregon Department of Transportation
John Bolte, Oregon State University
Patrick Brennan, Legislative Policy and Research Office
Mark Bunch, BP Oil Company​
Marie Dodd​s, Oregon/Idaho​ AAA
Lindsay Fitzgerald, Renewable Energy Group
Jana Gastellum, Oregon Environmental Council
Don Gilstrap, Chevron Oil Company
Mark Gram, Jubitz
Elizabeth Hepp, Valero
Ian Hill, SeQuential
Jessica Hoffman, RPMG
Jana Jarvis, Oregon Trucking Association
Tom Koehler, Pacific Ethanol
Mazen Malik, Legislative Revenue Office
Jeremy Martin, Union of Concerned Scientists
Colin McConnaha, Department of Environmental Quality
Brian McDonald, Andeavor
Tim Morgan, AAA Oregon/Idaho
Shelby Neal, National Biodiesel Board
Don Negri, Willamette University
Connor Nix, Shell Oil Company
Graham Noyes, Noyes Law Corporation
Bill Peters, Department of Environmental Quality
Josh Proudfoot, Good Company
Tiffany Roberts, Western States Petroleum Association
Danelle Romain, The Romain Group
Kristen Sheeran, Governor's Office
John Thornton, Clean Future
Marc Ventura, Phillips 66 Oil Company
Floyd Vergata, National Biodiesel Board
Samuel Wade, RNG Coalition​
Mary Wiencke, Pacificorp
Cory-Ann Wind, Department of Environmental Quality
Sean Wine, Clean Energy Fuels​

Friends and Support Staff
Waylon Buchan, Oregon Trucking Association
Matthew Davis, Department of Environmental Quality
Bryanna Duke, Department of Administrative Services​
Michael Kennedy, Office of Economic Analysis
Doug Kleeb, Oregon Department of Transportation
Joshua Lehner, Office of Economic Analysis
Daniel Porter, Oregon Department of Transportation




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