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Step 4: Future Conditions

Future Capacity Determination


Future capacity is determined based on an evaluation of capacity-based improvements identified in state, regional, and/or local plans as funded. Future capacity should be determined for all elements of the transportation system that were documented in the existing conditions for the jurisdiction (i.e., roadway, transit, bicycle, pedestrian, freight, rail, air, pipeline, and/or marine) as appropriate for the jurisdiction.  

Determining Future Capacity in Metropolitan Areas

For jurisdictions in non-metropolitan areas, follow the steps outlined below:

 Shall

At a minimum, this step shall include:

  • Identify potential changes to performance standards and targets in state, regional, and local plans. Cities and ODOT are required to adopt atleast two performance standards for their facilities within metropolitan areas per OAR 660-012-0215. At least one of the transportation performance standards must support increasing transportation options and avoiding principal reliance on the automobile while the other may still relate to performance of the system for vehicles.
    • Potential or adopted performance standards may be considered at this stage to determine if the desired future performance of the transportation system for vehicles. These alternatives may include:

      • Modifications to or replacement of existing vehicle mobility standards (i.e., level-of-service and volume-to-capacity) to accept higher levels of congestion during the peak hour or over multiple hours while focusing on other priorities.
      • Time-based measures such as delay, travel time, or travel time reliability (assess via dynamic traffic assignment models).
      • Focus on safety performance, connectivity, and completeness.
    • See Step 2: Performance Standards for additional information on performance standards.

 Should

In addition to the items listed above, this step should include the following elements when locally appropriate and when funding allows:

  • Identify committed capacity-based improvements in state, regional, and local plans
    • Committed capacity-based improvements may include system improvements identified in the State Transportation Improvement Program, Metropolitan Transportation Improvement Programs, local Capital Improvement Programs, or other improvements that have a committed funding source that are expected to be built before the end of the planning horizon. See OAR 660-012-005(6) for the definition of "Committed Transportation Facilities.
    • Committed capacity-based improvements may include improvements to the roadway system or the pedestrian, bicycle, transit, or other transportation systems (e.g. urban upgrades) that do not necessarily impact roadway capacity.
  • Add committed capacity to current capacity to determine baseline capacity through the planning horizon.
    • Committed roadway capacity-based improvements should already have gone through the Enhanced Review process if subject to OAR 660-012-0830. If the improvement has not gone through that process and is not exempt, it should not be added as part of the future capacity and should be considered in Step 5: Solution Development & Evaluation.

Determining Future Capacity in Non-Metropolitan Areas

For jurisdictions in non-metropolitan areas, follow the steps outlined below:

 Shall

At a minimum, this step shall include:

  • Identify committed capacity-based improvements in state, regional, and local plans
    • Committed capacity-based improvements may include system improvements identified in the State Transportation Improvement Program, local Capital Improvement Programs, or other improvements that have a committed funding source that are expected to be built before the end of the planning horizon. See OAR 660-012-005(6) for the definition of "Committed Transportation Facilities.
    • Committed capacity-based improvements may include improvements to the roadway system or the pedestrian, bicycle, transit, or other transportation systems (e.g. urban upgrades) that do not necessarily impact roadway capacity.
  • Add committed capacity to current capacity to determine baseline capacity through the planning horizon.

 Should

In addition to the items listed above, this step should include the following elements when locally appropriate and when funding allows:

  • Identify changes to performance standards and mobility targets in state, regional, and local plans.
    • Performance standards and mobility targets may be considered at this stage to determine the desired future capacity of the transportation system. These alternatives may include:
      • Modifications to or replacement of existing mobility standards (i.e., level-of-service and volume-to-capacity) to accept higher levels of congestion during the peak hour or over multiple hours while focusing on other priorities.
      • Time-based measures such as delay, travel time, or travel time reliability (assess via dynamic traffic assignment models).
    • See the Oregon Highway Plan for additional information on alternative mobility targets.
  • Consider potential increases in roadway capacity and throughput related to emerging technologies and trends in transportation.

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