Oregon Pretrial Assessment Tool (OPAT) Report

OPAT Overview

The OPAT estimates an individual’s likelihood of failing to appear for court (FTA), experiencing a new criminal arrest (NCA), or experiencing a new person crime arrest (NPCA) during a pretrial release to the community.

Scores on the tool are based on factors known about the defendant at the time of their arrest. This includes their Oregon arrest history (LEDS), their history with the Oregon Department of Corrections, their conviction history in Oregon’s Circuit Courts (Odyssey), and the nature of their current charge(s). The specific risk factors used from these data sources, when combined, were moderate (NPCA) to strong (FTA, NCA) predictors of pretrial misconduct in a sample of 24,438 Circuit Court cases released to the community in 2018. While the items used in the OPAT cover most of the Primary Release Criteria specified in ORS 135.230 to ORS 135.290, not all possible factors are included, and the scale does not incorporate Secondary Release Criteria.

The OPAT risk scores, supervision matrix, and recommended release conditions provided in this report are meant to supplement the decision-making of release authorities, not to replace it.

Validity

The Oregon Pretrial Assessment Tool (OPAT) was developed using data from 24,438 defendants released on pretrial status for a Circuit Court case in 2018. During their pretrial release, 34.2% of defendants failed to appear for a court date (FTA), 31.8% were arrested for a new criminal offense (NCA; excluding PCS), and 10.8% were arrested for a new person crime (NPCA). Scales predicting these three outcomes were created using risk factors coded from statewide criminal justice databases, including LEDS, Odyssey, and the Oregon Department of Corrections.

The OPAT's accuracy in predicting adverse outcomes is comparable to, or better than, other pretrial risk assessment tools used nationwide (see König & Krafft, 2021). For example, an Area Under the Curve (AUC) statistic between .65 and .72 is considered "moderately strong" in pretrial assessments, and anything above .71 is considered "strong". The OPAT's AUCs for the three outcomes were as follows: FTA = .73, NCA = .74, and NPCA = .66.

Pascal D. König & Tobias D. Krafft (2021) Evaluating the evidence in algorithmic evidence-based decision-making: the case of US pretrial risk assessment tools, Current Issues in Criminal Justice, 33:3, 359-381, DOI: 10.1080/10345329.2020.1849932

Criminal Justice Commission (CJC) Data System Update Interval

Odyssey

Weekly

Law Enforcement Data System (LEDS)

Weekly

Department of Corrections (DOC)

Monthly

Primary Release Criteria (ORS 135.230(7))

Release Criteria

Coverage in the OPAT

The reasonable protection of the victim or public

Not specifically addressed

The nature of the current charge(s)

Included (level and type)

The defendant’s prior criminal record

Included (limited to Oregon records)

If the defendant previously has been released pending trial, whether the defendant appeared as required

Included (limited to Oregon records)

Any facts indicating the possibility of violations of law if the defendant is released without regulations

Not specifically addressed

Any other facts tending to indicate that the defendant is likely to appear

Not specifically addressed

Secondary Release Criteria (ORS 135.230(11))

Release Criteria

Coverage in the OPAT

The defendant’s employment status and history and financial condition

Not specifically addressed

The nature and extent of the family relationships of the defendant

Not specifically addressed

The past and present residences of the defendant

Not specifically addressed

Names of persons who agree to assist the defendant in attending court at the proper time

Not specifically addressed

Any facts tending to indicate that the defendant has strong ties to the community

Not specifically addressed