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Understanding the Public Safety Checklist

What does the Public Safety Checklist do?

The Public Safety Checklist provides a quick, objective, validated assessment of the probability an individual will be re-convicted of a felony or re-arrested for a person or property offense based on the person's following characteristics:

Current age
Gender
Age at first arrest
Severity of current crime
Multiple custody cycles
Total number of statutory arrests
Total number of property arrests
Total number of person arrests
Total number of statutory arrests in last 5 years
Total number of property arrests in last 5 years
Total number of person arrests in last 5 years
Prior incarceration
Prior theft conviction
Prior revocation
Previous sentence type (probation or incarceration)

How was the Public Safety Checklist developed?

The Oregon Department of Corrections and Oregon Criminal Justice Commission analyzed actual re-arrest and re-conviction data from 55,000 offenders in Oregon from 2000 to 2005, and used logistic regression analysis to determine which demographic and criminal history factors are predictive of a person being reconvicted or rearrested. This model of risk assessment was then applied to all 350,000 individuals sentenced to probation or released from prison from 1980 through present to make sure the risk tool accurately and validly categorized these individuals risk to be re-arrested or re-convicted.

What measures of recidivism are used in the Public Safety Checklist?

Reconviction for any felony within 3 years of release from prison or being sentenced to probation, re-arrest for any person felony or class A person misdemeanor (32% are misdemeanors, not including DUII and misdemeanor Assault 4), and re-arrest for any property crime listed in ORS 137.717(2) (39% are misdemeanors including Theft 2).

Is the race or ethnicity of the person included as one of the factors that predict the risk score?

No. A person's race or ethnicity is not included in the measurement of an individual's risk to be re-arrested or re-convicted.

How is a risk score produced?

An algorithm is used to weigh the predictive factors and give a "composite score" for an individual with these characteristics. This is the same procedure that is used in life insurance actuarial tools or heart attack risk factors (although the factors are, of course, different).

What are the limitations of the Public Safety Checklist?

The Public Safety Checklist uses Oregon data and does not include out-of-state, federal or juvenile arrests and convictions. The Public Safety Checklist does not account for dynamic factors (factors that can change) that could possibly predict recidivism. These include factors such as the person's willingness to change or current participation in a drug treatment program. The Public Safety Checklist database includes individuals that have been convicted of a felony or serious misdemeanor. It also includes individuals that have a SID number and arrest in LEDS.

Risk Assessment Tool

SID:

To run the Public Safety Checklist (PSC), please enter a person's State Identification Number (SID).

The PSC will automatically check the person's criminal risk factors for you and tell you a person's level of risk for future reoffending.

Public Safety Checklist Factors

The PSC automatically checks the following risk factors for each person, and the interplay between these factors. The PSC then computes a person's level of risk for future reoffending and what percentage of criminal justice involved individuals has a lower risk of future reoffending.

age;
gender;
age of first arrest;
severity of current crime;
number of prior arrests for a person, property or other (statutory) type of crime;
was this person arrested for a person, property or other type of crime in the last five years;
any prior theft conviction;
any prior revocations on parole or probation;
any prior incarcerations;
multiple custody cycles;
previous sentence type (probation or incarceration);

New Conviction

FELONY

This estimates the percent of offenders at a lower risk for reconviction of a felony within 3 years of release from prison or imposition of probation based upon the risk scores of all felony offenders that have been released from prison or sentenced to probation in the last 5 years.

Relative risk legend

This estimates the likelihood the offender will be convicted of a new felony within 3 years of release from prison or imposition of probation.

New Arrest

PERSON CRIME

This estimates the percent of offenders at a lower risk for a new person arrest up to 10 years from release from prison or imposition of probation based upon the risk scores of all felony offenders that have been released from prison or sentenced to probation in the last 5 years.

Relative risk legend

This estimates the likelihood the offender will be arrested for a new person crime (as defined by Criminal Justice Commission Rules) up to 10 years from release from prison or imposition of probation.

PROPERTY CRIME

This estimates the percent of offenders at a lower risk for a new property arrest up to 10 years from release from prison or imposition of probation based upon the risk scores of all felony offenders that have been released from prison or sentenced to probation in the last 5 years.

Relative risk legend

This estimates the likelihood the offender will be arrested for a new property crime under ORS 137.717.2 up to 10 years from release from prison or imposition of probation.

Identifying Information

Name:
Gender:

DOB:
Current Age:

SID:

Multiple Custody Cycles:
Prior Incarceration:
Prior Theft Conviction:

Total statutory arrests:
Total property arrests:
Total person arrests:

Total statutory arrests in last 5 years:
Total property arrests in last 5 years:
Total person arrests in last 5 years: