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Step 4: Future Conditions

Future Deficiencies Determination

Jurisdictions shall determine future deficiencies for all elements of the transportation system, consistent with elements assessed under the existing conditions analysis (e.g., roadway, transit, bicycle, pedestrian, freight, rail, air, pipeline, and/or marine) as appropriate for the jurisdiction.

 Shall

At a minimum, determining future deficiencies shall include the following. Further guidance is provided by mode below, including when requirements differ for metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas.
  • Identify gaps and deficiencies of each modal system by comparing the existing system against full buildout, specifically considering crash risk factors, condition and width as relevant to the mode. Examples of gaps and deficiencies include areas of high crash rates, poor transit service, low bicycle and pedestrian level of service, and poor pavement conditions as well as absence of future connectivity for all modes, depending on the measures of adequacy developed in Step 2: Goals & Objectives.
  • Compare future travel demand to future capacity for all travel modes feasible for the jurisdiction through the planning horizon, based on the performance measures or measures of adequacy developed in Step 2: Goals & Objectives.

 Should

In addition to the items listed above, determining future deficiencies should include the following elements when locally appropriate and when funding allows:
  • Compare future travel demand or conditions against adopted performance standard(s) and identify where conditions would exceed performance thresholds or other applicable goals.
  • Clearly describe the time period in which deficiencies are likely to occur. For example, some intersections may not fail until the 20th year of the planning horizon, while others may fail within 5 years. Another example could be an area of a jurisdiction with low levels of transit service where low-income housing is forecast to increase substantially in the next 10 years.
  • Identifying infrastructure unable to sustain an earthquake and subsequent effects as a potential future deficiency.
  • Identifying deficiencies in the pedestrian and bicycle network associated with heat island effects, traveler comfort, and where street trees or other mitigations may improve travel.
  • Identifying resiliency-type deficiencies associated with non-operational deficiencies for transportation infrastructure in areas that are exposed to natural hazards (flooding, landslides, wildfire, heat), projected impacts from rising sea levels, or seismic/tsunami events.

Deficiencies are defined as the difference between the current transportation system and adopted standards or targets and may reflect performance measures and evaluation criteria developed in Step 2: Goals & Objectives. Deficiencies are capacity or design constraints that limit but do not prohibit the ability to travel by a given mode.
























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