Oregon's land use planning program relies on population forecasts as a primary tool for determining urban growth boundary (UGB) expansions and for crafting new land use planning policies. By estimating future populations based on historic and current trends, as well as assuming the likelihood of future events, population forecasts provide necessary information to help planners, public officials, private firms, and developers better understand the effects of population growth in local areas.
As directed by the Oregon Legislature, the Population Research Center at Portland State University is the sole source of population forecasts used by cities and counties in their comprehensive planning work.
Oregon Population Forecast Program (OPFP)
The Population Research Center (PRC) kicked off the Oregon Population Forecast Program (OPFP) in 2015. OPFP prepares forecasts for the state in 4-year cycles. Data is created for one quarter of Oregon counties each year. Additional details about the program and the resulting population forecast data can be found by visiting the Population Research Center website.
A few highlights of the program are:
- Coordinated forecasts for cities and counties in the state every four years.
- Forecasts for cities (except for cities within the Portland Metro area) and counties at five-year intervals up to 50 years.
- Public input and review of forecasts.
- A process to challenge data for forecasts thought to be incorrect.
Note: The Population Research Center produces county level forecasts for Multnomah, Clackamas, and Washington counties, as well as for cities outside of Metro's jurisdiction, but they do not provide forecasts for cities within the Metro region.