Future Travel Demand Determination
Future travel demand is determined based on an evaluation of the adopted comprehensive plan land uses assumptions and population and employment forecasts. Future travel demand should be determined for all elements of the transportation system that were documented in the existing conditions for the jurisdiction (i.e., roadway, transit, bicycle, pedestrian, freight, rail, air, pipeline, and/or marine) as appropriate for the jurisdiction and scaled to community size. The impact of anticipated changes in land uses and/or the addition of significant traffic generators should consider all travel modes.
Shall
At a minimum, this step
shall include:
- Population changes through the planning horizon – Portland State University's Population Research Center provides population data, information, research, and analysis for Oregon and its communities.
- Employment changes through the planning horizon – Most larger communities have completed economic opportunity analyses. Some regions have also completed regional economic opportunity analyses. Some of those documents, depending on the magnitude of work completed, include employment forecast data. Otherwise, the U.S. Census and the Oregon Employment Department can provide information on employment growth.
- Projected changes in population and employment shall be distributed throughout the urban growth boundary consistent with the acknowledged comprehensive plan. The changes in population and employment shall be converted into personal travel on the transportation system and then assigned as pedestrian, bicycle, transit, and motor vehicle volumes. The additional volumes shall be applied to current volumes to produce a forecast of future transportation system conditions. The forecasting methodology should be appropriate to the questions being asked and the complexity of the issues related to the transportation system. There are four levels of methodology, ranging from simple, straightforward trending analyses to more complex and sophisticated regional transportation modeling:
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Level 1 Trending Forecast or similar forecasting methodology should be used in areas where there has been slow or steady growth or where there is not enough data available to perform a cumulative analysis.
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Level 2 Cumulative Analysis or a similar forecasting methodology is preferred over the trend analysis in areas where there has been fast growth or where differing rates of growth exist and when adequate data is available.
- For jurisdictions with a population greater than 15,000 or where a transportation demand model exists (regardless of size), a
Level 3 Transportation Model or similar forecasting methodology is preferable.
- Metropolitan areas (50,000+ persons) require a
Level 4 Regional Transportation Model or similar forecasting methodology.
Should
In addition to the items listed above, this step
should include the following elements when locally appropriate and when funding allows:
- Consider potential increases in future travel demand related to emerging technologies and trends in transportation.
Autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles have the potential to increase travel demand by shifting people from one travel mode to another (i.e., walking, biking, taking transit to an autonomous vehicle), increasing mobility of people who currently cannot drive (i.e., elderly, disabled, youth), and increasing e-commerce and the frequency of deliveries.
Communities updating a TSP should consult with ODOT Region Planners, Transportation Development Division (Planning), Transportation Planning Analysis Unit, and the Analysis Procedures Manual to determine the appropriate methodology to forecast future demand for their community. Note: Jurisdictions should contact ODOT Region Active Transportation and Transit Liaisons, ODOT Rail and Public Transit Division, Freight Mobility Unit, or the Department of Aviation for guidance in estimating future demand, capacity, deficiencies and needs for their respective modes.