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2021 Modeling Study


DEQ was in the process of developing the Climate Protection Program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and address the worsening effects of climate change. This program would establish limits on emissions from some of the most significant sources in Oregon.

Contracted modeling study

DEQ contracted with ICF to conduct a study to assess different greenhouse gas emissions reduction program designs through specialized economic and emissions modeling to analyze potential effects on:

  • Forecasted greenhouse gas emissions
  • Equity, air quality, and public health co-benefits
  • Economic effects on regulated entities, businesses, consumers, and Oregon's economy

ICF used different modeling tools to forecast emissions and project program effects on public health and the economy. The study began with a “reference case" to serve as a baseline to forecast future conditions based on existing regulations. Then different program options were modeled in policy scenarios and compared to the reference case to inform DEQ's proposed Climate Protection Program design in the rulemaking.

The results of the emissions, economic, and public health modeling then informed an assessment of equity and potential co-benefits. This qualitative assessment helped determine how and to what extent emissions reduction strategies may affect Oregon's residents and environment. This allowed DEQ and ICF to investigate broader potential program impacts on key indicators including health, environmental, economics, and social impacts.