Background
Prior to the Climate Protection Program, the Environmental Quality Commission previously adopted a climate program in 2021 that took effect in 2022. The Oregon Court of Appeals invalidated that program (OAR Chapter 340, Division 271) in 2023 based on a failure of DEQ to provide a specific type of notice.
Contracted modeling study
DEQ contracted with ICF to conduct a study to assess different greenhouse gas emissions reduction program designs through specialized economic and emissions modeling to analyze potential effects on:
- Forecasted greenhouse gas emissions
- Equity, air quality, and public health co-benefits
- Economic effects on regulated entities, businesses, consumers, and Oregon's economy
ICF used different modeling tools to forecast emissions and project program effects on public health and the economy. The study began with a “reference case" to serve as a baseline to forecast future conditions based on existing regulations. Then different program options were modeled in policy scenarios and compared to the reference case to inform DEQ's proposed Climate Protection Program design in the rulemaking.
The results of the emissions, economic, and public health modeling then informed an assessment of equity and potential co-benefits. This qualitative assessment helped determine how and to what extent emissions reduction strategies may affect Oregon's residents and environment. This allowed DEQ and ICF to investigate broader potential program impacts on key indicators including health, environmental, economics, and social impacts.